Pass Probability Atlas: one trader profile, 220 configurations, modeled odds 1.7%–85.1%

Numbers first: 220 account-size configurations across 55 verified rule sets (41 firm names) — every configuration in the corpus with a profit target; the 23 instant-funded configurations with nothing to pass are listed, not run. One disclosed trader profile (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade), 25,000 seeded paths per cell. The drawdown floor binds in 62.3% of configurations, the daily loss limit in 37.7%, the evaluation window and consistency rules in 0% and 0%. Answer first: this is the corpus-wide generalization of the eight-rule-set static-vs-trailing study — same engine, same fixed trader, every verified rule set instead of eight. It answers one question a buyer has before a fee is paid: holding my profile constant, how much does the rule set I am about to buy change my modeled odds, and which clause will bind? Every figure is computed from the verified rule corpus through the engine by our build script and shipped in the dataset (CC BY 4.0); the method is documented in Research & methodology.

Key findings

How widely does the rule set alone move one trader's modeled odds?

The atlas — every verified configuration, alphabetical by firm

One row per account-size configuration, ordered by firm name, then program, then size — never by probability. Each row: the published rules the engine read, the modeled phase-1 pass probability for this profile with its Monte Carlo standard error (± in points), the binding clause, and the dated evidence behind the rules. Each firm has an anchor named after its rule set, for example #alpha-capital-one. The 23 instant-funded configurations with no profit target are listed under Methodology, not here.

"(assumed)" beside a window means the corpus records no published maximum number of days for that phase, so the simulation uses a 60-day window; 207 of 220 configurations carry that assumption. "Daily none" means the corpus records no daily loss limit. The ± is Monte Carlo sampling error only — it says nothing about the rule snapshot or the profile assumption.

Does a different trader change the picture?

Yes — every number. The same grid was run for two further disclosed profiles. The level shifts with the trader; the ordering of rule sets moves much less. Their full per-row results are in the dataset.

Which rule dimension explains the spread?

Descriptive, not causal: rule dimensions co-vary across firms (a small drawdown often comes with a trailing floor), and a split with more levels can explain more variance by construction.

Methodology

Sources and evidence

• Rule corpus — 59 rule sets, 243 account-size rule files, one per firm and account size, each field carrying its own source URL and retrieval date; the atlas rows link the firm source, the firm's rule page and, where it exists, its verification record. Snapshot 2026-09-05.
• Model output — every probability, share and η² on this page is a model-derived result from the disclosed engine, seeds, path count and profile above; none is a sourced fact about real traders. See hypothetical performance for what such a figure can and cannot mean.
• Dataset — research-pass-probability-data.json (CC BY 4.0): per-row resolved inputs, seeds, per-cell input records, per-cause failure shares and all three profiles' results. Cite as: PropSurvival (2026). Pass Probability Atlas: modeled pass probability for one disclosed trader across every verified rule set. https://propsurvival.com/research-pass-probability
• Related first-party work — Static vs trailing drawdown (the eight-rule-set precursor), the challenge pages (single configurations, the same cells), fee ÷ pass probability (this page supplies the denominator's shape), Survival Benchmarks (rule-free survival grid), Research & methodology, what PropSurvival never claims.

PropSurvival is independent analytical software and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any firm named above. Firm names identify published rule sets only. Rule values reflect the dated corpus snapshot; each firm's own documents are the final authority. This page ranks no firm, publishes no population statistics of its own and makes no outcome guarantee. Nothing here is investment advice.