{
 "name": "Pass Probability Atlas: modeled pass probability for one disclosed trader profile across every verified prop-firm rule set (2026-09-05)",
 "description": "One fixed, disclosed trader profile run on the same seeded Monte Carlo engine under every account-size configuration in the verified rule corpus. Per configuration: modeled phase-1 pass probability with its Monte Carlo standard error, per-cause failure shares, the binding clause, the resolved rule inputs, seeds and input fingerprints. The trader is the constant; the rule set is the variable. These are model outputs for a stated profile, not population pass rates and not predictions for any reader.",
 "url": "https://propsurvival.com/research-pass-probability",
 "dataset_url": "https://propsurvival.com/research-pass-probability-data.json",
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "citation": "PropSurvival (2026). Pass Probability Atlas: modeled pass probability for one disclosed trader across every verified rule set. https://propsurvival.com/research-pass-probability",
 "_generated_by": "tools/build-research-pass-probability.js — every figure computed at build time from rules/** through the engine; zero hand-typed numbers",
 "_reproduce": "node tools/build-research-pass-probability.js --run (recompute every cell) · --check (re-verify input fingerprints against the live corpus, re-render from these cached results, diff both outputs, prove equality with every challenges/*-data.json cell) · --check --recompute (also re-run the engine)",
 "datePublished": "2026-09-05",
 "dateModified": "2026-09-05",
 "corpus_snapshot": "2026-09-05",
 "engine": {
  "module": "src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js",
  "model_id": "simulateFromState",
  "version": "1.0-L3",
  "paths": 25000,
  "seed_scheme": "seed = first 8 hex digits of sha256(\"propsurvival-challenge-\" + <slug>-<size/1000>k-<profile id>-phase1) read as an unsigned 32-bit integer; phase 2 uses the suffix -phase2",
  "page_id_scheme": "<slug>-<size/1000>k — identical to the /challenges/ page ids, so every shared cell shares its seed",
  "phase2_composition": "funded = pass(phase 1) × pass(phase 2); standard error by the delta method: sqrt((se1·p2)² + (se2·p1)²); the phase-2 run keeps the phase-1 drawdown and daily-loss inputs, exactly as the /challenges/ pages compose it",
  "window_assumption": "where the corpus records no published maximum number of days, a 60-day window is used for the simulation only; it is never printed as a published rule",
  "closed_trade_ratchet": "a trailing floor recorded as ratcheting on closed-trade balance is modeled as intraday trailing — strict on the ratchet, the same mapping the firm presets ship"
 },
 "profiles": [
  {
   "id": "steady-scaler",
   "label": "Steady Scaler",
   "dek": "a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade",
   "trader": {
    "wr": 50,
    "winR": 1.5,
    "lossR": 1,
    "risk": 1,
    "trades": 4,
    "cost": 0.05,
    "stopLosses": 0,
    "profitLock": 0,
    "clustering": "Independent"
   },
   "primary": true
  },
  {
   "id": "aggressive-scalper",
   "label": "Aggressive Scalper",
   "dek": "a 45% win rate, 1.8R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade",
   "trader": {
    "wr": 45,
    "winR": 1.8,
    "lossR": 1,
    "risk": 1,
    "trades": 4,
    "cost": 0.05,
    "stopLosses": 0,
    "profitLock": 0,
    "clustering": "Independent"
   },
   "primary": false
  },
  {
   "id": "balance-rider",
   "label": "Balance Rider",
   "dek": "a 42% win rate, 2.0R-average-win trader risking 0.75% of equity per trade",
   "trader": {
    "wr": 42,
    "winR": 2,
    "lossR": 1,
    "risk": 0.75,
    "trades": 4,
    "cost": 0.05,
    "stopLosses": 0,
    "profitLock": 0,
    "clustering": "Independent"
   },
   "primary": false
  }
 ],
 "primary_profile": "steady-scaler",
 "corpus": {
  "rule_set_count": 59,
  "firm_name_count": 43,
  "config_count": 243,
  "corpus_hash": "cb25168b43b247b4b43870cd73a496495714739df8f908b08cd436b9a9bf385d",
  "inclusion": "rules/<slug>/<account_size>.json where <slug> is a firm in tools/corpus-sync.js computeCorpus() — the same inclusion rule as every corpus count on the site"
 },
 "evaluated": {
  "count": 220,
  "rule_set_count": 55,
  "firm_name_count": 41,
  "rule": "every corpus configuration whose resolved phase-1 profit target is a number; configurations with no profit target (instant-funded programs) are listed under excluded and never run"
 },
 "excluded": [
  {
   "slug": "alpha-futures-direct",
   "firm": "Alpha Futures",
   "program": "Direct Qualified",
   "program_full": "Direct Qualified (instant-funded: skips the Evaluation stage, starts directly on a Qualified/funded account)",
   "page_id": "alpha-futures-direct-25k",
   "size": 25000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "alpha-futures-direct",
   "firm": "Alpha Futures",
   "program": "Direct Qualified",
   "program_full": "Direct Qualified (instant-funded: skips the Evaluation stage, starts directly on a Qualified/funded account)",
   "page_id": "alpha-futures-direct-50k",
   "size": 50000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "alpha-futures-direct",
   "firm": "Alpha Futures",
   "program": "Direct Qualified",
   "program_full": "Direct Qualified (instant-funded: skips the Evaluation stage, starts directly on a Qualified/funded account)",
   "page_id": "alpha-futures-direct-100k",
   "size": 100000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "alpha-futures-direct",
   "firm": "Alpha Futures",
   "program": "Direct Qualified",
   "program_full": "Direct Qualified (instant-funded: skips the Evaluation stage, starts directly on a Qualified/funded account)",
   "page_id": "alpha-futures-direct-150k",
   "size": 150000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "funded-trading-plus-instant",
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding",
   "page_id": "funded-trading-plus-instant-5k",
   "size": 5000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "funded-trading-plus-instant",
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding",
   "page_id": "funded-trading-plus-instant-10k",
   "size": 10000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "funded-trading-plus-instant",
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding",
   "page_id": "funded-trading-plus-instant-25k",
   "size": 25000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "funded-trading-plus-instant",
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding",
   "page_id": "funded-trading-plus-instant-50k",
   "size": 50000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "funded-trading-plus-instant",
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding",
   "page_id": "funded-trading-plus-instant-100k",
   "size": 100000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-1k",
   "size": 625,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-1k",
   "size": 1250,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-3k",
   "size": 2500,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-5k",
   "size": 5000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-10k",
   "size": 10000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-20k",
   "size": 20000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-40k",
   "size": 40000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-80k",
   "size": 80000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "instant-funding",
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding (flagship, no-evaluation instant-funded account program)",
   "page_id": "instant-funding-120k",
   "size": 120000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ofp-funding",
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding — \"Classic\" plan (ofpfunding.com/pricing, Instant Mode tab; type:\"instant\", accountType:\"Classic\" in the site's own server-rendered product data). The only Instant-Mode tier that is genuinely zero-evaluation (profitTarget:null, minTradingDays:0, maxTradingDays:null in that same per-SKU record) and the only tier priced up to $300,000; sibling Instant tabs (Lite, capped $200k and carrying a real 5%/5-day evaluation despite the \"Instant\" name; Plus/Pro/Prime, capping at $100k/$200k/$200k) are out of scope for this product file. Models the 3% daily / 6% overall risk-pair option at the 80% base profit-split tier — of two selectable risk pairs (3%/6% and 5%/10%) and two selectable profit-split tiers (80% base, 100% paid upgrade) priced separately at checkout for every size (see pricing.initial_fee and payout.profit_split_pct provenance for the unmodeled alternatives).",
   "page_id": "ofp-funding-5k",
   "size": 5000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ofp-funding",
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding — \"Classic\" plan (ofpfunding.com/pricing, Instant Mode tab; type:\"instant\", accountType:\"Classic\" in the site's own server-rendered product data). The only Instant-Mode tier that is genuinely zero-evaluation (profitTarget:null, minTradingDays:0, maxTradingDays:null in that same per-SKU record) and the only tier priced up to $300,000; sibling Instant tabs (Lite, capped $200k and carrying a real 5%/5-day evaluation despite the \"Instant\" name; Plus/Pro/Prime, capping at $100k/$200k/$200k) are out of scope for this product file. Models the 3% daily / 6% overall risk-pair option at the 80% base profit-split tier — of two selectable risk pairs (3%/6% and 5%/10%) and two selectable profit-split tiers (80% base, 100% paid upgrade) priced separately at checkout for every size (see pricing.initial_fee and payout.profit_split_pct provenance for the unmodeled alternatives).",
   "page_id": "ofp-funding-10k",
   "size": 10000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ofp-funding",
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding — \"Classic\" plan (ofpfunding.com/pricing, Instant Mode tab; type:\"instant\", accountType:\"Classic\" in the site's own server-rendered product data). The only Instant-Mode tier that is genuinely zero-evaluation (profitTarget:null, minTradingDays:0, maxTradingDays:null in that same per-SKU record) and the only tier priced up to $300,000; sibling Instant tabs (Lite, capped $200k and carrying a real 5%/5-day evaluation despite the \"Instant\" name; Plus/Pro/Prime, capping at $100k/$200k/$200k) are out of scope for this product file. Models the 3% daily / 6% overall risk-pair option at the 80% base profit-split tier — of two selectable risk pairs (3%/6% and 5%/10%) and two selectable profit-split tiers (80% base, 100% paid upgrade) priced separately at checkout for every size (see pricing.initial_fee and payout.profit_split_pct provenance for the unmodeled alternatives).",
   "page_id": "ofp-funding-25k",
   "size": 25000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ofp-funding",
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding — \"Classic\" plan (ofpfunding.com/pricing, Instant Mode tab; type:\"instant\", accountType:\"Classic\" in the site's own server-rendered product data). The only Instant-Mode tier that is genuinely zero-evaluation (profitTarget:null, minTradingDays:0, maxTradingDays:null in that same per-SKU record) and the only tier priced up to $300,000; sibling Instant tabs (Lite, capped $200k and carrying a real 5%/5-day evaluation despite the \"Instant\" name; Plus/Pro/Prime, capping at $100k/$200k/$200k) are out of scope for this product file. Models the 3% daily / 6% overall risk-pair option at the 80% base profit-split tier — of two selectable risk pairs (3%/6% and 5%/10%) and two selectable profit-split tiers (80% base, 100% paid upgrade) priced separately at checkout for every size (see pricing.initial_fee and payout.profit_split_pct provenance for the unmodeled alternatives).",
   "page_id": "ofp-funding-50k",
   "size": 50000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  },
  {
   "slug": "ofp-funding",
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "program_full": "Instant Funding — \"Classic\" plan (ofpfunding.com/pricing, Instant Mode tab; type:\"instant\", accountType:\"Classic\" in the site's own server-rendered product data). The only Instant-Mode tier that is genuinely zero-evaluation (profitTarget:null, minTradingDays:0, maxTradingDays:null in that same per-SKU record) and the only tier priced up to $300,000; sibling Instant tabs (Lite, capped $200k and carrying a real 5%/5-day evaluation despite the \"Instant\" name; Plus/Pro/Prime, capping at $100k/$200k/$200k) are out of scope for this product file. Models the 3% daily / 6% overall risk-pair option at the 80% base profit-split tier — of two selectable risk pairs (3%/6% and 5%/10%) and two selectable profit-split tiers (80% base, 100% paid upgrade) priced separately at checkout for every size (see pricing.initial_fee and payout.profit_split_pct provenance for the unmodeled alternatives).",
   "page_id": "ofp-funding-100k",
   "size": 100000,
   "reason": "no profit target recorded — an instant-funded program has no evaluation to pass"
  }
 ],
 "excluded_summary": [
  {
   "firm": "Alpha Futures",
   "program": "Direct Qualified",
   "sizes": 4
  },
  {
   "firm": "Funded Trading Plus",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "sizes": 5
  },
  {
   "firm": "Instant Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "sizes": 9
  },
  {
   "firm": "OFP Funding",
   "program": "Instant Funding",
   "sizes": 5
  }
 ],
 "run": {
  "engine_runs": 801,
  "scope": "phase 1 for every configuration; phase 2 for every two-step configuration; all 3 disclosed profiles"
 },
 "counts": {
  "two_step": 47,
  "max_days_assumed": 207,
  "closed_trade_ratchet": 22,
  "no_daily_limit": 73,
  "consistency_rule": 26,
  "freeze_at_initial": 88,
  "challenge_pages": 8,
  "by_floor": {
   "static": 73,
   "trail_eod": 101,
   "trail_intraday": 46
  },
  "sizes": [
   2000,
   2500,
   5000,
   8000,
   10000,
   15000,
   20000,
   25000,
   50000,
   75000,
   100000,
   150000,
   200000,
   250000,
   300000,
   400000,
   500000,
   650000,
   1000000
  ],
  "steps": [
   1,
   2
  ]
 },
 "summary": {
  "steady-scaler": {
   "archetype": "steady-scaler",
   "n": 220,
   "min": {
    "pass_pct": 1.7,
    "slug": "leeloo-trading",
    "firm": "Leeloo Trading",
    "program": "Foundation Practice Account",
    "size": 300000
   },
   "max": {
    "pass_pct": 85.1,
    "slug": "fintokei",
    "firm": "Fintokei",
    "program": "ProTrader",
    "size": 20000
   },
   "spread_pts": 83.5,
   "mean_pct": 53.5,
   "median_pct": 53.6,
   "binding_share": {
    "dailyFail": {
     "count": 83,
     "pct": 37.7
    },
    "totalFail": {
     "count": 137,
     "pct": 62.3
    },
    "timeout": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    },
    "consistFail": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    }
   },
   "eta2_by_dimension": {
    "dd_mode": {
     "label": "the drawdown floor type (static, end-of-day trailing, intraday trailing)",
     "eta2": 0.161,
     "levels": 3
    },
    "target_pct": {
     "label": "the profit-target size",
     "eta2": 0.201,
     "levels": 13
    },
    "total_dd_pct": {
     "label": "the max-drawdown size",
     "eta2": 0.431,
     "levels": 20
    },
    "target_to_dd_ratio": {
     "label": "the target-to-drawdown ratio",
     "eta2": 0.499,
     "levels": 25
    },
    "daily_limit": {
     "label": "whether a daily loss limit exists",
     "eta2": 0.036,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "steps": {
     "label": "one step or two",
     "eta2": 0.203,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "consistency": {
     "label": "whether a consistency rule exists",
     "eta2": 0.1,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "max_days_used": {
     "label": "the evaluation window length used",
     "eta2": 0.083,
     "levels": 3
    }
   },
   "eta2_ranking": [
    "target_to_dd_ratio",
    "total_dd_pct",
    "steps",
    "target_pct",
    "dd_mode",
    "consistency",
    "max_days_used",
    "daily_limit"
   ],
   "two_step": {
    "n": 47,
    "funded_min_pct": 21.9,
    "funded_max_pct": 75
   }
  },
  "aggressive-scalper": {
   "archetype": "aggressive-scalper",
   "n": 220,
   "min": {
    "pass_pct": 0.5,
    "slug": "leeloo-trading",
    "firm": "Leeloo Trading",
    "program": "Foundation Practice Account",
    "size": 300000
   },
   "max": {
    "pass_pct": 79.9,
    "slug": "funding-pips",
    "firm": "FundingPips",
    "program": "2-Step Standard",
    "size": 50000
   },
   "spread_pts": 79.4,
   "mean_pct": 48.6,
   "median_pct": 49,
   "binding_share": {
    "dailyFail": {
     "count": 83,
     "pct": 37.7
    },
    "totalFail": {
     "count": 137,
     "pct": 62.3
    },
    "timeout": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    },
    "consistFail": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    }
   },
   "eta2_by_dimension": {
    "dd_mode": {
     "label": "the drawdown floor type (static, end-of-day trailing, intraday trailing)",
     "eta2": 0.147,
     "levels": 3
    },
    "target_pct": {
     "label": "the profit-target size",
     "eta2": 0.183,
     "levels": 13
    },
    "total_dd_pct": {
     "label": "the max-drawdown size",
     "eta2": 0.378,
     "levels": 20
    },
    "target_to_dd_ratio": {
     "label": "the target-to-drawdown ratio",
     "eta2": 0.461,
     "levels": 25
    },
    "daily_limit": {
     "label": "whether a daily loss limit exists",
     "eta2": 0.024,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "steps": {
     "label": "one step or two",
     "eta2": 0.169,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "consistency": {
     "label": "whether a consistency rule exists",
     "eta2": 0.129,
     "levels": 2
    },
    "max_days_used": {
     "label": "the evaluation window length used",
     "eta2": 0.094,
     "levels": 3
    }
   },
   "eta2_ranking": [
    "target_to_dd_ratio",
    "total_dd_pct",
    "target_pct",
    "steps",
    "dd_mode",
    "consistency",
    "max_days_used",
    "daily_limit"
   ],
   "two_step": {
    "n": 47,
    "funded_min_pct": 16.3,
    "funded_max_pct": 66.5
   }
  },
  "balance-rider": {
   "archetype": "balance-rider",
   "n": 220,
   "min": {
    "pass_pct": 1.9,
    "slug": "leeloo-trading",
    "firm": "Leeloo Trading",
    "program": "Foundation Practice Account",
    "size": 300000
   },
   "max": {
    "pass_pct": 91.9,
    "slug": "fintokei",
    "firm": "Fintokei",
    "program": "ProTrader",
    "size": 10000
   },
   "spread_pts": 90,
   "mean_pct": 56.6,
   "median_pct": 55.5,
   "binding_share": {
    "dailyFail": {
     "count": 63,
     "pct": 28.6
    },
    "totalFail": {
     "count": 157,
     "pct": 71.4
    },
    "timeout": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    },
    "consistFail": {
     "count": 0,
     "pct": 0
    }
   },
   "eta2_by_dimension": {
    "dd_mode": {
     "label": "the drawdown floor type (static, end-of-day trailing, intraday trailing)",
     "eta2": 0.222,
     "levels": 3
    },
    "target_pct": {
     "label": "the profit-target size",
     "eta2": 0.294,
     "levels": 13
    },
    "total_dd_pct": {
     "label": "the max-drawdown size",
     "eta2": 0.594,
     "levels": 20
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