Topstep $50K evaluation: the rules, what binds first, and the modeled pass odds
Topstep's own published $50K rules, run against 3 disclosed trader profiles through src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js at 25,000 seeded paths each — the same engine that powers the free simulator.
For the Steady Scaler profile (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade), the modeled pass probability on Topstep's $50K program is 54.3% ± 0.3% SE, binding on the max drawdown floor.
- Why it matters
- Because the max drawdown floor is what most often ends a modeled run on this program, sizing to survive deeper drawdown swings — smaller risk per trade, more cushion before the floor — does more for pass odds here than rushing the profit target.
- Evidence
- 19 sourced rule field(s), rules hash 40ecf3b35a8ccb90, corpus anchor 2026-07-31.
- Calculation / result
- Seeded Monte Carlo, 25,000 paths, seed 1403970509 — src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js.
- Limitation
- Modeled for one disclosed trader profile, not a prediction of any individual's outcome; not a ranking or comparison of firms.
- Retrieved / verified
- Retrieved 2026-07-31 · last checked 2026-09-02 · finding: cited sentence not found at last re-check (2026-09-02).
Current rule snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Program | Trading Combine |
| Account size | $50,000 |
| Phase 1 target | 6% ($3,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Daily loss | 2% ($1,000) · lockout, not a fail — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Max drawdown | 4% ($2,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Drawdown mode | end-of-day trailing · freezes at starting balance — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Consistency rule | 50% best-day cap (blocks passing) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Min / max trading days | Min 2 — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 · Max no maximum published (60-day window assumed for the simulation) |
| Payout timing | 5 days to first payout |
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Reproduce this page's own numbers
The free calculator opens prefilled with Topstep's $50K rules and the Steady Scaler profile above (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade). Change any dial to see your own numbers — the engine is identical.
run your own book against Topstep — freeWhat the rules mean
Topstep models a end-of-day trailing drawdown floor at 4% of the account, freezing once the starting balance is locked in. A 2% daily loss limit applies as a same-day lockout, not an account fail. This is a one-step program: passing the evaluation is funding.
- Firms whose trailing drawdown ratchets end-of-day
- Trailing drawdown — glossary
- Daily loss limit — glossary
- Firms with a consistency rule
- Consistency rule — glossary
- Evaluation — glossary
- Funded account — glossary
Ambiguities we found
5 PM CT reset shifts between 22:00 UTC (CDT) and 23:00 UTC (CST) across US daylight-saving changes; the firm publishes the local time, not a fixed UTC.
Conservative reading used:
23:00E2(b)/E3: the DLL is OPTIONAL at checkout, not a property of the account. Firm: 'The Daily Loss Limit (DLL) is optional in the Trading Combine ... You now have the option to add a Daily Loss Limit at checkout.' A Combine sold without it has NO daily loss limit; only the MLL constrains it. Conservative headline = ABSENT (breach day 19 vs 20; earlier failure = higher ruin). The hardcoded DLL models only the bought variant and under-estimates ruin for the cheaper account.
Flagged 2026-07-22 (run 2), never modeled until now. Topstep publishes the 50% cap two ways on one page: prose ("at or below 50% of your Profit Target" -> fixed denominator = profit_target) and a formula ("Best Day Profit / Total Profit = Best Day %" -> denominator = total_profit_so_far). The two readings are IDENTICAL exactly at the moment of passing (total_profit_so_far == profit_target by definition of having just reached it) and diverge only if profit overshoots the target before the check applies, where the total_profit denominator grows and the resulting percentage is SMALLER (more lenient) than against the fixed target. profit_target is therefore the higher-ruin (conservative) reading. NOT changed to conservative: tools/build-firm-presets.js line 38 (consistencyPct()) does an EXACT STRING MATCH on metric==="best_day_pct_of_total_profit" to wire this constraint live into the simulator; switching the stored string would silently return 0 and DISABLE Topsteps consistency check entirely - a far worse outcome than sitting on the lenient side of a narrow overshoot-only edge case. Same shape as the adjacent, already-disclosed consistency.effect approximation (block vs raise_target) on this same product. Disclosed via ambiguities[], value left as the live-wired string.
Conservative reading used:
best_day_pct_of_profit_targetScenarios
Three named, disclosed trader profiles — not this reader's numbers — so the result is reproducible rather than personal.
| Archetype | Pass probability | Binding constraint | Median days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady Scaler a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 54.3% ± 0.3% | max drawdown floor (45.7%) | 4 | run this profile |
| Aggressive Scalper a 45% win rate, 1.8R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 49.7% ± 0.3% | max drawdown floor (50.2%) | 4 | run this profile |
| Balance Rider a 42% win rate, 2.0R-average-win trader risking 0.75% of equity per trade | 54.1% ± 0.3% | max drawdown floor (45.8%) | 5 | run this profile |
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Topstep
Binding rule
Across the 3 modeled archetypes, the binding constraint is consistently the max drawdown floor — for the Steady Scaler profile it accounts for 45.7% of simulated paths. The max drawdown floor eliminates more paths than running out of time or breaching the daily limit.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Topstep
Compare
Other account sizes of this program
- $100K — trailing drawdown
- $150K — trailing drawdown
Side-by-side comparison
Research
- Methodology — how PropSurvival models a challenge
- Static vs trailing drawdown: how the floor mechanic changes pass probability
Rule history
Commit history for rules/topstep/50000.json:
- 2026-08-17 — fix(docs): put all 59 published firm rulebooks on origin/main so corpus-check can emit dates
Independent rechecks:
- 2026-07-22 — two-pass-blind-independent (confirmed_with_mismatch)
- 2026-07-31 — modeled-from-prior-run-2-finding (changed)
Sources
- help.topstep.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — ""$50K" = "$3,000"; "$100K" = "$6,000"; "$150K" = "$9,000""
- help.topstep.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "You can pass in as few as two days"
- help.topstep.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "$50K:$1,000 / $100K:$2,000 / $150K:$3,000"
- help.topstep.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "$50K:$2,000 / $100K:$3,000 / $150K:$4,500"
- help.topstep.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "90/10 split - you keep 90%"
Full verification record for this firm
Next action
Run your own numbers against these exact rules
Enter your win rate, average R and risk size and the free simulator applies Topstep's full published rule set — same engine, same rules, live. See full pricing for the written report at /pricing.
run your own book against Topstep — freeFrequently asked
- Does the Topstep program have a daily loss limit?
- Yes — 2% of the account, enforced as a lockout rather than an account fail.
- How does the max drawdown floor move?
- It ratchets once per day, at the end-of-day close, off the highest end-of-day balance reached. It freezes at the starting balance once the account has locked in enough profit.
- Is there a best-day consistency rule?
- Yes — 50% cap on any single day’s share of total profit.
- When is the first payout available?
- 5 days after funding, per the corpus record.
- Has this rule set changed recently?
- The most recent re-check (2026-09-02) found a cited sentence no longer at the source — re-verification is pending.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Topstep. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.