Prop Firm Survival Analysis

Know if you'll survive the challenge — before you pay for it.

Most evaluations don't die to bad strategies — they die to trailing drawdowns, daily limits, and oversized risk. PropSurvival runs your real trades against each firm's real rules and returns a probability-backed verdict: your funded odds, the exact cause of failure, and the risk band that keeps you alive — before the fee leaves your card.

100% on-device 8 prop firms · rules verified monthly One-time $39 · no subscription

No signup. No upload. Your trade data never leaves this browser tab — disconnect your internet and it still runs.

Live simulation · 60 pathspass —% · dd-fail —%
Passed target Killed by drawdown Trailing floor
~90%of evaluation attempts fail — most within the first week, to risk limits rather than strategy.Industry aggregate across published firm and analytics datasets.
2–4 attemptsis what the median trader pays for before passing. Fees stack: $150–600 each time.The engine turns that repeat spend into a modeled, avoidable number.
<2% riskper trade correlates with materially higher pass rates. Your exact band depends on your stats — so compute it.The free tier includes the recommended-risk band.
How it works

Three minutes from CSV to verdict.

01

Import your real trades

Drop a CSV export from your platform — or type your win rate, average R, and trade frequency. No sample-size theatre: the engine labels the statistical confidence of your inputs.

02

Pick the firm, not just numbers

One click loads the firm's actual rule set: intraday vs. end-of-day trailing drawdown, freeze-at-initial floors, consistency percentages, daily loss limits, time windows. Every preset carries a "last verified" date.

03

Read the verdict

Thousands of Monte Carlo paths return your pass probability, the exact cause of failure, your Survival Score, and the risk band that keeps you alive. GO, REDUCE, or NO-GO — before you pay.

The firm rule engine

Free calculators simulate averages. This simulates the rules that actually kill accounts.

A 6% trailing drawdown computed on intraday equity peaks is a different game from a static 10% floor — and most traders discover the difference after the account is gone. Every preset below is modeled the way the firm actually measures it.

static floor — never moves

Static drawdown: the same dip survives, because the floor stays where it started.

trailing floor — ratchets up with every peak

Trailing drawdown: the identical dip is fatal — the floor climbed with your unrealized peak.

Firm · ProgramDrawdown mechanicsConsistencyVerified
FTMO · 2-Step ChallengeStatic 10% daily 5% vs. day-start2026-07Model it →
Apex Trader Funding · Futures EvalTrailing · intraday on unrealized peaks, locks at initial30%2026-07Model it →
Topstep · Trading CombineTrailing · EOD stops at start balance, daily limit50%2026-07Model it →
FundedNext · Stellar 2-StepStatic 10% daily 5%2026-07Model it →
MyFundedFutures · StarterTrailing · EOD locks at initial40%2026-07Model it →
Funding Pips · The5ers · FTMO SwingStatic variants, per-program limits2026-07Model it →

Rules change without notice — every preset shows its verification date inside the engine, every update is logged publicly on the rule changelog, and Pro licenses receive rule updates for the life of the product. Always confirm final rules on the firm's own documentation before purchasing. Deep dives: Apex trailing drawdown, explained · Topstep's 50% consistency rule · prop trading glossary.

Privacy is the architecture, not a policy

Your trade history is your edge. We never see it.

PropSurvival is a single self-contained page. There is no backend, no database, no account system. Your CSVs are parsed in this tab, simulations run in this tab, results are stored in this browser's local storage — full stop.

  • No signup, no email wall, no tracking pixels in the engine
  • Cloud journal tools compute your stats on their servers. This one can't — there are no servers.
  • GDPR compliance in one sentence: no personal data is processed anywhere but your device.
Prove it in 10 seconds:
1. Open the engine
2. Turn off Wi-Fi
3. Import a CSV, run 10,000 paths

It all still works. Airplane mode is our audit.
Pricing

Less than a challenge reset. Once.

Trading journals charge $348–588 every year. The nearest tool with a comparable simulator gates it at $349. PropSurvival is $39, one time — because its job is to protect the $300 you're about to spend, not to become a second subscription.

Free
$0
no signup, no card, no time limit
  • Full Monte Carlo strategy engine (10,000+ paths)
  • Every firm rule preset — trailing, consistency, daily limits
  • CSV trade-history import with confidence diagnostics
  • GO / NO-GO verdict, Survival Score, safe risk band
  • Best-fit firm from the Firm Fit ranking
  • Shareable verdict card
Start free
LAUNCH PRICE
Pro — lifetime
$39
one payment · lifetime updates · 14-day refund
  • Firm Fit & Fee ROI — full ranking of every firm by your stats: funded probability (both phases for 2-step programs), expected attempts, expected fee spend, modeled first-year economics
  • Firm Fit annex in the PDF report — the ranking lands inside the institutional 10-section document
  • Deep simulation mode — report-grade depth: 10,000-path prop verdicts and 2,000-path risk-band scans
  • Firm preset & rule updates for the life of the product
  • License valid on 2 devices
Get Pro — $39

Checkout and license keys are handled by Lemon Squeezy, our merchant of record — they collect VAT/sales tax and hold card data; we never see either. Refunds are 14 days, no questions asked, from your purchase email. The launch price is $39 for the first 50 licenses, then it moves to $49 — a public commitment, not a countdown timer. Early buyers keep their price through every future update.

Questions traders actually ask

Straight answers.

Is this just another prop calculator?

The free calculators take your typed averages and shuffle them against a static drawdown. This engine imports your actual trade history, applies the firm's real drawdown mechanics (intraday trailing vs. EOD vs. static, freeze-at-initial, consistency rules), decomposes failure by cause, and computes the risk band that changes the outcome. Run both on the same stats and watch the numbers disagree — that disagreement is the product.

Can a simulation really predict whether I'll pass?

No — and anyone who says otherwise is selling something. Monte Carlo gives you the probability distribution your statistics imply under the firm's rules, assuming your future resembles your sample. It cannot know regime changes or your psychology. What it does brutally well: showing when the fee is mathematically premature, and which single lever (usually risk size) moves your odds most. Full methodology →

Why should I trust the rule presets?

Every preset displays the date it was last verified against the firm's own documentation, and the modeling notes state every simplification openly. Rules change without notice — that's exactly why they're versioned, dated, and kept updated for the life of the product on the Pro license. Final authority is always the firm's own docs.

What happens to my trade data?

It's parsed and stored inside this browser only. There is no server that could receive it. Verify: open the engine, disconnect from the internet, and everything still works. The only network call the product ever makes is license activation — which sends the license key, nothing else, to the payment provider.

Why one-time instead of a subscription?

Because you're trying to stop paying recurring fees to this industry, not add another one. $39 is a single up-front payment — not a subscription, nothing to cancel — and it includes the rule updates we release for the product. If it saves you one bad $300 challenge purchase, it paid for itself eight times.

What if you stop maintaining it?

Your edge stays on your machine. The engine runs entirely in your browser with no dependency on our servers, so the version you have keeps working even if updates ever stop — and your Pro license is built the same way: once activated it isn't downgraded because a server is unreachable, so an outage or shutdown can't lock you out of what you bought. If we ever permanently close the product, our intention is to release a final build with the license check removed. You're buying software that runs on your machine, not renting access to a server someone can switch off.

The firm already knows the odds.
Now you can too.

Run your numbers — free, no signup

Takes about three minutes. Costs nothing. Might save you $600.

Rule-change alerts

Firms change drawdown rules without announcements. One short email when a verified rule set changes — nothing else, ever. Unsubscribe anytime.