FTMO $100K evaluation: the rules, what binds first, and the modeled pass odds
FTMO's own published $100K rules, run against 3 disclosed trader profiles through src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js at 25,000 seeded paths each — the same engine that powers the free simulator.
For the Steady Scaler profile (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade), the modeled funded probability on FTMO's $100K program is 71.9% ± 0.3% SE, binding on the daily loss limit.
- Why it matters
- Because the daily loss limit is what most often ends a modeled run on this program, pacing risk within a single day — smaller size per trade, spreading entries across more days — does more for pass odds here than one large push toward the target.
- Evidence
- 14 sourced rule field(s), rules hash 5dd9f30c3d55776e, corpus anchor 2026-07-31.
- Calculation / result
- Seeded Monte Carlo, 25,000 paths, seed 1690558971 / 4008208546 — src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js.
- Limitation
- Modeled for one disclosed trader profile, not a prediction of any individual's outcome; not a ranking or comparison of firms.
- Retrieved / verified
- Retrieved 2026-07-31 · last checked 2026-09-02 · finding: cited sentence not found at last re-check (2026-09-02).
Current rule snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Program | FTMO Challenge (2-Step) |
| Account size | $100,000 |
| Phase 1 target | 10% ($10,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Phase 2 target | 5% ($5,000) |
| Daily loss | 5% ($5,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Max drawdown | 10% ($10,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Drawdown mode | static (fixed floor) — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 |
| Consistency rule | none recorded |
| Min / max trading days | Min 4 — source · retrieved 2026-07-16 · Max no maximum published (60-day window assumed for the simulation) (phase 1) |
| Phase 2 min / max days | Min 4 · Max no maximum published (60-day window assumed for the simulation) |
| Payout timing | no payout timing source recorded in the corpus |
Run it
Reproduce this page's own numbers
The free calculator opens prefilled with FTMO's $100K rules and the Steady Scaler profile above (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade). Change any dial to see your own numbers — the engine is identical.
run your own book against FTMO — freeWhat the rules mean
FTMO models a static drawdown floor at 10% of the account. A 5% daily loss limit applies. Funding requires clearing both Phase 1 and Phase 2 — the composed probability multiplies the two independent pass probabilities.
- Firms with a static (non-trailing) drawdown floor
- Static drawdown — glossary
- Daily loss limit — glossary
- Phase 2 — glossary
- Evaluation — glossary
- Funded account — glossary
Ambiguities we found
Flagged 2026-07-22 (run 2), never modeled until now. FTMO publishes ONE rule for both products ("recalculated daily at 00:00 CE(S)T"), but this corpus held two different UTC values (ftmo=23:00, ftmo-1step=22:00) for the identical source sentence - the CET(winter,UTC+1)/CEST(summer,UTC+2) DST split, not two different firm rules. Unified both products to the same ambiguities[] set, matching the convention Topsteps own reset_time_utc ambiguity already uses for the identical CDT/CST issue. Conservative = 23:00 (CET reading), matching both the already-held ftmo.json value and Topsteps precedent.
Conservative reading used:
23:00Scenarios
Three named, disclosed trader profiles — not this reader's numbers — so the result is reproducible rather than personal.
| Archetype | Funded probability | Binding constraint | Median days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady Scaler a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 71.9% ± 0.3% | daily loss limit (14.2%) | 9 | run this profile |
| Aggressive Scalper a 45% win rate, 1.8R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 63.8% ± 0.3% | daily loss limit (18.8%) | 8 | run this profile |
| Balance Rider a 42% win rate, 2.0R-average-win trader risking 0.75% of equity per trade | 83.7% ± 0.2% | max drawdown floor (4.9%) | 11 | run this profile |
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by FTMO
Binding rule
Across the 3 modeled archetypes, the binding constraint is usually the daily loss limit, but not for every profile — for the Steady Scaler profile it accounts for 14.2% of simulated paths in Phase 1. The daily loss limit eliminates more paths than the overall drawdown floor or the time window.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by FTMO
Compare
Other account sizes of this program
- $50K — payout rules
- $200K — payout rules
Other programs from FTMO
Research
- Methodology — how PropSurvival models a challenge
- Static vs trailing drawdown: how the floor mechanic changes pass probability
Rule history
Commit history for rules/ftmo/100000.json:
- 2026-08-17 — fix(docs): put all 59 published firm rulebooks on origin/main so corpus-check can emit dates
Independent rechecks:
- 2026-07-22 — two-pass-blind-independent (confirmed_with_mismatch)
- 2026-07-31 — modeled-from-prior-run-2-finding (confirmed_with_disagreement)
Sources
- ftmo.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "Phase 1 (FTMO Challenge): "10%""
- academy.ftmo.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "$204,000 - $10,000 = $194,000"
- academy.ftmo.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-16 — "equity also includes floating profits and losses"
Full verification record for this firm
Next action
Run your own numbers against these exact rules
Enter your win rate, average R and risk size and the free simulator applies FTMO's full published rule set — same engine, same rules, live. See full pricing for the written report at /pricing.
run your own book against FTMO — freeFrequently asked
- Does the FTMO program have a daily loss limit?
- Yes — 5% of the account.
- How does the max drawdown floor move?
- It does not move — this is a static floor set at account start, 10% of the starting balance.
- How many trading days does this program require?
- A minimum of 4 trading days — no maximum is published in the corpus; this page assumes a 60-day window for the simulation.
- When is the first payout available?
- no payout-timing source is recorded in the corpus for this program — the firm’s own payout policy is the authority.
- Has this rule set changed recently?
- The most recent re-check (2026-09-02) found a cited sentence no longer at the source — re-verification is pending.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by FTMO. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.