Maven $50K evaluation: the rules, what binds first, and the modeled pass odds
Maven's own published $50K rules, run against 3 disclosed trader profiles through src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js at 25,000 seeded paths each — the same engine that powers the free simulator.
For the Steady Scaler profile (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade), the modeled pass probability on Maven's $50K program is 40.4% ± 0.3% SE, binding on the daily loss limit.
- Why it matters
- Because the daily loss limit is what most often ends a modeled run on this program, pacing risk within a single day — smaller size per trade, spreading entries across more days — does more for pass odds here than one large push toward the target.
- Evidence
- 13 sourced rule field(s), rules hash 6e4baea31e43d942, corpus anchor 2026-07-31.
- Calculation / result
- Seeded Monte Carlo, 25,000 paths, seed 797350384 — src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js.
- Limitation
- Modeled for one disclosed trader profile, not a prediction of any individual's outcome; not a ranking or comparison of firms.
- Retrieved / verified
- Retrieved 2026-07-31 · last checked 2026-09-02.
Current rule snapshot
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Program | Standard 1-Step Challenge |
| Account size | $50,000 |
| Phase 1 target | 8% ($4,000) — source · retrieved 2026-07-30 |
| Daily loss | 3% ($1,500) — source · retrieved 2026-07-30 |
| Max drawdown | 5% ($2,500) — source · retrieved 2026-07-30 |
| Drawdown mode | intraday trailing — source · retrieved 2026-07-30 |
| Consistency rule | none recorded |
| Min / max trading days | Min no minimum recorded — source · retrieved 2026-07-30 · Max no maximum published (60-day window assumed for the simulation) |
| Payout timing | first-payout timing not recorded; 10-day cycle after that |
Run it
Reproduce this page's own numbers
The free calculator opens prefilled with Maven's $50K rules and the Steady Scaler profile above (a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade). Change any dial to see your own numbers — the engine is identical.
run your own book against Maven — freeWhat the rules mean
Maven models a intraday trailing drawdown floor at 5% of the account. A 3% daily loss limit applies. This is a one-step program: passing the evaluation is funding.
- Firms whose trailing drawdown ratchets on intraday equity
- Trailing drawdown — glossary
- Daily loss limit — glossary
- Evaluation — glossary
- Funded account — glossary
Ambiguities we found
Reader A found no stated minimum trading-day requirement. Reader B reported a 4-day minimum but captured no supporting quote for it (unlike every other disputed field here, where both readers at least quoted something), and reader B is the reader whose profit-target, daily-loss, max-drawdown, and consistency-tooltip reads for this same product all show signs of having come from a different Maven page/product tab (see max_drawdown.type and profit_target_pct above). This template ordinarily resolves an unresolvable pair to the stricter reading (assume the constraint exists), but here the harder candidate's only support is an unquoted number from the reader already shown unreliable on this product's other fields, so it is not adopted. Modeled value: no minimum (null in the corpus) - reader A's reading - pending a citable quote for either candidate.
Scenarios
Three named, disclosed trader profiles — not this reader's numbers — so the result is reproducible rather than personal.
| Archetype | Pass probability | Binding constraint | Median days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady Scaler a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 40.4% ± 0.3% | daily loss limit (33.8%) | 4 | run this profile |
| Aggressive Scalper a 45% win rate, 1.8R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade | 36.6% ± 0.3% | daily loss limit (38.0%) | 4 | run this profile |
| Balance Rider a 42% win rate, 2.0R-average-win trader risking 0.75% of equity per trade | 42.3% ± 0.3% | daily loss limit (30.5%) | 6 | run this profile |
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Maven Trading
Binding rule
Across the 3 modeled archetypes, the binding constraint is consistently the daily loss limit — for the Steady Scaler profile it accounts for 33.8% of simulated paths. The daily loss limit eliminates more paths than the overall drawdown floor or the time window.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Maven Trading
Compare
Other account sizes of this program
- $2K — daily loss
- $5K — daily loss
- $10K — daily loss
- $20K — daily loss
- $100K — daily loss
Research
- Methodology — how PropSurvival models a challenge
- Static vs trailing drawdown: how the floor mechanic changes pass probability
Rule history
Commit history for rules/maven-trading/50000.json:
- 2026-08-17 — fix(docs): put all 59 published firm rulebooks on origin/main so corpus-check can emit dates
Independent rechecks:
- 2026-07-30 — two-pass-blind-independent (confirmed_with_disagreement)
- 2026-07-31 — two-pass-blind-independent (changed)
Sources
- maventrading.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-30 — "This is a single-phase program with a 8% profit target. It has a 5% maximum trailing loss limit, a 3% maximum daily loss limit based on the higher of equity or balance at 00:00 UTC+0."
- maventrading.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-30 — "(no verbatim quote captures a minimum-trading-day count for this product from either reader; modeled as an unresolved ambiguity - see ambiguities[])"
- maventrading.com — source page · retrieved 2026-07-30 — "If your challenge or funded account hits any of the drawdown limits then your account will be breached."
Full verification record for this firm
Next action
Run your own numbers against these exact rules
Enter your win rate, average R and risk size and the free simulator applies Maven's full published rule set — same engine, same rules, live. See full pricing for the written report at /pricing.
run your own book against Maven — freeFrequently asked
- Does the Maven program have a daily loss limit?
- Yes — 3% of the account.
- How does the max drawdown floor move?
- It ratchets on the highest balance reached, modeled here on every closed trade.
- How many trading days does this program require?
- No minimum trading-day requirement is modeled for this program.
- When is the first payout available?
- no payout-timing source is recorded in the corpus for this program — the firm’s own payout policy is the authority.
- Has this rule set changed recently?
- Re-checked against the source on 2026-09-02 with no disconfirming finding.
Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Maven Trading. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.