Topstep $50K — Risk-Doubled Grinder
Topstep’s own published $50K rules, run against the identical Disciplined Grinder edge at 2% risk per trade instead of 1% — 25,000 seeded paths through the same engine that powers the free simulator.
Compared with the Disciplined Grinder scenario — This page changes exactly one input from that scenario — risk per trade, 1% → 2%. The firm, account size, win rate and R-multiples are all identical.
Modeled 25.5% funded probability for this trader profile on Topstep’s $50K program — the binding constraint is the max drawdown floor (74.3% of paths).
Free calculator: run your own book against Topstep — free
The firm’s rules
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Program | Trading Combine |
| Account size | $50,000 |
| Phase 1 target | 6% ($3,000) |
| Daily loss | 2% daily loss (lockout, not a fail) |
| Max drawdown | 4% ($2,000) · end-of-day trailing drawdown that stops at the starting balance |
| Consistency rule | 50% best-day consistency rule |
| Min / max trading days | 2 / 60 |
The modeled trader
Not this reader’s numbers — one named, fixed profile, so the result is reproducible rather than personal. Enter different numbers in the free calculator to see your own.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% |
| Average win / average loss | 1.3R / 1R |
| Risk per trade | 2% of equity |
| Trades per day (modeled) | 4 (Poisson-distributed) |
| Round-trip cost | 0.05R per trade |
| Trade clustering | Independent |
The simulated result
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Funded probability | 25.5% ± 0.3% SE |
| Binding constraint | max drawdown floor (74.3% of paths) |
| Median days to pass | 2 |
| Paths simulated | 25,000 · seed 981406749 |
What this is
- A deterministic, seeded Monte Carlo run of 25,000 paths against Topstep’s own published rules (rules/topstep/50000.json), reproducible byte-for-byte from the stated seed.
- The same reduction-proven engine (src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js) that powers the free simulator — not a separate or simplified model.
- One fixed, disclosed trader profile — not this reader’s trading.
What this is not
- Not a prediction of any individual’s outcome, and not investment or trading advice.
- Not a ranking, endorsement, or comparison of firms.
- Not Topstep’s own observed pass-rate data — a model of its published rules, not a historical statistic.
Run your own numbers against these exact rules
Enter your win rate, average R and risk size — or import a trade CSV — and the free simulator applies Topstep’s full published rule set. It will not reproduce this page’s seed bit-for-bit (your inputs are your own), but it is the same engine, the same rules, live.
run your own book against Topstep — freeSimulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by Topstep. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.