FTMO $100K — Steady Scaler
FTMO’s own published $100K rules, run against a 50% win rate, 1.5R-average-win trader risking 1% of equity per trade — 25,000 seeded paths through the same engine that powers the free simulator.
Modeled 71.6% funded probability (Phase 1 81.4% × Phase 2 87.9%) for this trader profile on FTMO’s $100K program — Phase 1’s binding constraint is the daily loss limit (14.5% of Phase 1 paths).
Free calculator: run your own book against FTMO — free
The firm’s rules
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Program | FTMO Challenge (2-Step) |
| Account size | $100,000 |
| Phase 1 target | 10% ($10,000) |
| Phase 2 target | 5% ($5,000) |
| Daily loss | 5% daily loss |
| Max drawdown | 10% ($10,000) · static drawdown |
| Min / max trading days | 4 / 60 (phase 1) |
| Phase 2 min / max days | 4 / 60 |
The modeled trader
Not this reader’s numbers — one named, fixed profile, so the result is reproducible rather than personal. Enter different numbers in the free calculator to see your own.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% |
| Average win / average loss | 1.5R / 1R |
| Risk per trade | 1% of equity |
| Trades per day (modeled) | 4 (Poisson-distributed) |
| Round-trip cost | 0.05R per trade |
| Trade clustering | Independent |
The simulated result
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Phase 1 pass probability | 81.4% ± 0.2% SE |
| Phase 2 pass probability | 87.9% ± 0.2% SE |
| Funded probability (both phases) | 71.6% ± 0.3% SE |
| Phase 1 binding constraint | daily loss limit (14.5% of Phase 1 paths) |
| Median days to pass | 9 |
| Paths simulated | 25,000 · seed 3449776723 / 2605260591 |
What this is
- A deterministic, seeded Monte Carlo run of 25,000 paths against FTMO’s own published rules (rules/ftmo/100000.json), reproducible byte-for-byte from the stated seed.
- The same reduction-proven engine (src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js) that powers the free simulator — not a separate or simplified model.
- One fixed, disclosed trader profile — not this reader’s trading.
What this is not
- Not a prediction of any individual’s outcome, and not investment or trading advice.
- Not a ranking, endorsement, or comparison of firms.
- Not FTMO’s own observed pass-rate data — a model of its published rules, not a historical statistic.
Run your own numbers against these exact rules
Enter your win rate, average R and risk size — or import a trade CSV — and the free simulator applies FTMO’s full published rule set. It will not reproduce this page’s seed bit-for-bit (your inputs are your own), but it is the same engine, the same rules, live.
run your own book against FTMO — freeSimulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by FTMO. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.