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Scenario library · Seeded Monte Carlo

E8 Markets $100K — Balance Rider

Corpus last verified 2026-07-30 · rules hash edb0dcaf3fc93dc5 · built 2026-08-31 · rules/e8-markets

E8 Markets’s own published $100K rules, run against a 42% win rate, 2.0R-average-win trader risking 0.75% of equity per trade — 25,000 seeded paths through the same engine that powers the free simulator.

Key result · extract this block

Modeled 59.7% funded probability for this trader profile on E8 Markets’s $100K program — the binding constraint is the max drawdown floor (29.2% of paths).

Source: https://propsurvival.com/scenarios/e8-markets-100k-balance-rider · corpus rules/e8-markets/100000.json · seed 2306835204

Free calculator: run your own book against E8 Markets — free

The firm’s rules

FieldValue
ProgramE8 One (customizable 4-14% Dynamic Drawdown / 80-90-100% payout split; this file = the /e8-one page's own default config, 6% drawdown / 80% split)
Account size$100,000
Phase 1 target9% ($9,000)
Daily loss4% daily loss
Max drawdown6% ($6,000) · closed-balance trailing drawdown that stops at the starting balance
Min / max trading days0 / 60

The modeled trader

Not this reader’s numbers — one named, fixed profile, so the result is reproducible rather than personal. Enter different numbers in the free calculator to see your own.

FieldValue
Win rate42%
Average win / average loss2R / 1R
Risk per trade0.75% of equity
Trades per day (modeled)4 (Poisson-distributed)
Round-trip cost0.05R per trade
Trade clusteringIndependent

The simulated result

FieldValue
Funded probability59.7% ± 0.3% SE
Binding constraintmax drawdown floor (29.2% of paths)
Median days to pass8
Paths simulated25,000 · seed 2306835204

What this is

  • A deterministic, seeded Monte Carlo run of 25,000 paths against E8 Markets’s own published rules (rules/e8-markets/100000.json), reproducible byte-for-byte from the stated seed.
  • The same reduction-proven engine (src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js) that powers the free simulator — not a separate or simplified model.
  • One fixed, disclosed trader profile — not this reader’s trading.

What this is not

  • Not a prediction of any individual’s outcome, and not investment or trading advice.
  • Not a ranking, endorsement, or comparison of firms.
  • Not E8 Markets’s own observed pass-rate data — a model of its published rules, not a historical statistic.
node tools/build-scenarios.js — regenerates this page and proves byte-identity (--check)

Run your own numbers against these exact rules

Enter your win rate, average R and risk size — or import a trade CSV — and the free simulator applies E8 Markets’s full published rule set. It will not reproduce this page’s seed bit-for-bit (your inputs are your own), but it is the same engine, the same rules, live.

run your own book against E8 Markets — free

Simulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · not affiliated with or endorsed by E8 Markets. Rules change without notice; the firm’s own documentation is always the final authority. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.