Breakout runner on your own rules — a $50K book
PropSurvival’s own default personal rule shape — a 6% target, 4% daily loss limit, 5% drawdown floor — run against a 41% win rate, 2.9R-average-win trader risking 1.1% of equity per trade — 25,000 seeded paths through the same engine that powers the free simulator.
Modeled 83.6% probability of reaching the 6% target before breaching your own 4% daily loss limit or 5% drawdown floor for this trader profile — the binding constraint is the drawdown floor (16.4% of paths).
Free calculator: Run this with your own rules
Your rules
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Account size (modeled) | $50,000 |
| Target | 6% ($3,000) |
| Daily loss limit | 4% ($2,000) · lockout, not a fail |
| Drawdown floor | 5% ($2,500) · static drawdown |
| Min / max trading days | 0 / 120 — your own book, no minimum |
The modeled trader
Not this reader’s numbers — one named, fixed profile, so the result is reproducible rather than personal. Enter different numbers in the free calculator to see your own.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Win rate | 41% |
| Average win / average loss | 2.9R / 1R |
| Risk per trade | 1.1% of equity |
| Trades per day (modeled) | 5 (Poisson-distributed) |
| Round-trip cost | 0.05R per trade |
| Trade clustering | Independent |
The simulated result
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Target-reach probability | 83.6% ± 0.2% SE |
| Binding constraint | drawdown floor (16.4% of paths) |
| Median days to reach target | 2 |
| Paths simulated | 25,000 · seed 2006654922 |
What this is
- A deterministic, seeded Monte Carlo run of 25,000 paths against PropSurvival’s own personal rule shape (no firm, no corpus) — reproducible byte-for-byte from the stated seed.
- The same reduction-proven engine (src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js) that powers the free simulator — not a separate or simplified model.
- One fixed, disclosed trader profile — not this reader’s trading.
What this is not
- Not a prediction of any individual’s outcome, and not investment or trading advice.
- Not a ranking or comparison of trading styles.
- Not a recommendation for what your own risk limits should be — the 4%/5% shape is this pilot’s modeled default, not firm-sourced and not prescriptive.
Change any of these four numbers, live
Enter your own win rate, average R and risk size in the free simulator — same personal rule shape (6% target, 4% daily loss, 5% drawdown), same engine, live. It will not reproduce this page’s seed bit-for-bit — your inputs are your own.
Run this with your own rulesSimulated result from user-supplied inputs · not investment advice · PropSurvival is independent of all prop firms. Rules here are ones you set yourself; nothing on this page is a recommendation for what your own limits should be. See the disclaimer for the full never-claims list.