Decision study 01 / Personal
Double the risk.
Read both sides.
A higher median is only half the story. Compare the same strategy at two risk levels before you commit capital.
One illustrative strategy. Two risk levels. No account or data upload needed.
01 / See both sides
The example will be calculated in your browser.
Change in median balance
End-of-run balances. Includes stopped paths.As many simulated loss-limit hits
Same 0–100% scale. This example, not a general multiplier.02 / The full comparisonRead the assumptions ↓
| Risk per tradeOf the balance at each trade | 0.5%Risk per trade | 1%Risk per trade |
|---|---|---|
| Stayed within the loss limitThrough all trading days | — | — |
| Median end-of-run balanceMiddle of the simulated end balances | — | — |
| Lower 5% balance thresholdNot the worst possible outcome | — | — |
Scroll the comparison sideways to read both risk levels.
Neither risk level is a recommendation. This example shows a trade-off, not a forecast.
Now ask the same question
about your strategy.
Open the free editor with your own assumptions. No example inputs are copied into your work.
Read the balance range
The range appears after the example is calculated.
Every simulated path is included. A path ends at the loss limit or after the stated trading period; a completed trade can cross below the limit. These are end-of-run balances, not a forecast of an account's value on a future date.
What stays the same?
R is a unit of trade risk. The cost assumption is constant in R, not dollars: the dollar cost changes with the balance and risk size. No broker-specific commission, contract rounding or liquidity model is added.
Both scenarios use the same starting seed through the existing engine. Stopping at different points can change later random draws, so these are not paired identical trade sequences.
This strategy is invented for explanation, not taken from a customer or market backtest. Real trades can cluster, costs can change and estimated win rates can be wrong. More simulated paths do not remove those uncertainties.
Watch the same decision in 36 seconds
The same illustrative inputs and engine, recorded from this experience. The video is optional.