Personal Case File
Your rules · 2026-08-06
Where you stand, against your own rules
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P1
Constraint status
88.4% of simulated paths reaches your stated goal without breaking a rule you set — at or above your threshold of 50.0%.
Set the share you’d accept. This is a comparison against a line you choose, not our opinion — move the line and it changes.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P2
Survival tonight
Tomorrow's largest survivable losing day is $1,500 — your daily loss limit binds before the drawdown floor.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P3
Killed by
At your current risk (0.75%), the first rule to break is running out of days without reaching your goal, in 81.5% of failing paths.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P4
The sweep study
The share of paths that respect every rule you set peaks at 92.2% (±0.5%) when risk per trade is 0.90% of balance.
| Risk | Share intact | SE | Daily stop | Max drawdown | Timeout | Ruin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10% | 0.0% | ±0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.20% | 0.6% | ±0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 99.4% | 0.0% |
| 0.30% | 20.4% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 79.6% | 0.0% |
| 0.40% | 51.3% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 48.6% | 0.0% |
| 0.50% | 73.9% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| 0.60% | 85.0% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
| 0.70% | 90.3% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 0.80% | 89.9% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 0.90% | 92.2% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 1.00% | 91.4% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 1.10% | 90.7% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 7.1% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 1.20% | 90.4% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 1.30% | 88.6% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 10.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.40% | 88.2% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 11.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 1.50% | 84.7% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 1.60% | 84.8% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 12.9% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 1.70% | 80.9% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 1.80% | 81.2% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 17.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 1.90% | 80.8% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 18.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| 2.00% | 80.4% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 18.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 2.10% | 77.9% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 21.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| 2.20% | 77.5% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 21.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| 2.30% | 76.3% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 23.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 2.40% | 76.1% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 23.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 2.50% | 67.9% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 31.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
- your max drawdown overtakes running out of days without reaching your goal as the larger share of breaches somewhere between 0.90% and 1.00% risk per trade.
Every level swept, up to 2.50%, keeps running out of days without reaching your goal at or under 10.0% — this sweep never confidently crosses that ceiling.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P5
Capital at horizon
Simulated ending equity: 5th percentile $107,827, median $116,148, 95th percentile $119,646. P(equity reaches −25% from your starting balance at any point) is 0.0%.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P6
Attested rules ledger
Every rule above is read from the values you entered and attested to yourself. PropSurvival verifies nothing about a personal rule set the way it verifies a firm's published terms.
The simulation above assumes each simulated trading day is drawn independently from the distribution your own recent daily results, or your own stated mean and spread, describe. A real trading record may not hold that shape.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P7
What moves it
your horizon (+10 trading days) moves the share respecting every rule from 88.4% to 96.4% (+7.9%). your daily stop (+1 percentage point) moves the share respecting every rule from 88.4% to 91.3% (+2.9%). your max drawdown (+1 percentage point) moves the share respecting every rule from 88.4% to 89.3% (+0.8%).
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
P8
Provenance
Seed 1 · 5,000 paths · SE ±0.5% · generated 2026-08-06 · Your rules, your data — nothing here is verified against a firm's rule corpus.
Personal Case File · $49 · one-time · yours to keep · issued 2026-08-06