Survival days
If risk per trade and the drawdown allowance are both percents of the same book, lives = allowance ÷ risk. Dividing lives by trades per day is how many sessions an all-loss streak lasts. The widget counts mixed win/loss sequences instead of that ceiling.
Horizon (days) and trades per day are fields on the widget. The table is the all-loss ceiling from lives ÷ trades-per-day.
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At 10% allowance and 1% risk, lives = 10. At 5 trades/day, an all-loss streak reaches the floor in 10 ÷ 5 = 2 sessions. A 50% win rate has 2.5 expected losses per day, which would stretch that naive mean to 4 days — still not a forecast, because streaks are not the mean.
| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Lives (10% ÷ 1%) | 10 |
| All-loss sessions (lives ÷ 5 trades/day) | 2 |
| Naive mean days at 50% win rate | 4 |
The widget's survival share is the quantity that includes sequencing. The table is the ceiling identity.
Ceiling vs share of paths
All-loss days is a worst-streak clock. The simulated share can be high even when that clock is short, if wins interrupt the streak often enough that the floor is not reached. The free personal-rule engine currently models a stated Max Drawdown allowance as a fixed floor measured from your starting balance, not a floor that ratchets upward with a new equity peak.
Risk of ruin calculator · methodology.
FAQ
- What are survival days on this page?
- The all-loss ceiling: (drawdown allowance ÷ risk per trade) ÷ trades per day. It is how many sessions a book lasts if every trade loses at the stated size.
- Why is that not the simulator's answer?
- Because real sequences mix wins and losses. The widget counts those sequences. The table does not replace that count with the ceiling.
- Does this say I will last N days?
- No. The ceiling is an identity under an all-loss assumption. The widget reports a share of simulated paths. Neither is a calendar promise.
Run it against your own numbers
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Open the personal rule editor — free, full accuracy →Rules and outcomes vary by firm and by trader; nothing on this page is investment or trading advice, and PropSurvival is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any prop trading firm. This calculator models a stated rule set — it does not predict market outcomes.