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Survival days

If risk per trade and the drawdown allowance are both percents of the same book, lives = allowance ÷ risk. Dividing lives by trades per day is how many sessions an all-loss streak lasts. The widget counts mixed win/loss sequences instead of that ceiling.

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Horizon (days) and trades per day are fields on the widget. The table is the all-loss ceiling from lives ÷ trades-per-day.

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The mechanism

At 10% allowance and 1% risk, lives = 10. At 5 trades/day, an all-loss streak reaches the floor in 10 ÷ 5 = 2 sessions. A 50% win rate has 2.5 expected losses per day, which would stretch that naive mean to 4 days — still not a forecast, because streaks are not the mean.

QuantityValue
Lives (10% ÷ 1%)10
All-loss sessions (lives ÷ 5 trades/day)2
Naive mean days at 50% win rate4

The widget's survival share is the quantity that includes sequencing. The table is the ceiling identity.

Ceiling vs share of paths

All-loss days is a worst-streak clock. The simulated share can be high even when that clock is short, if wins interrupt the streak often enough that the floor is not reached. The free personal-rule engine currently models a stated Max Drawdown allowance as a fixed floor measured from your starting balance, not a floor that ratchets upward with a new equity peak.

Risk of ruin calculator · methodology.

FAQ

What are survival days on this page?
The all-loss ceiling: (drawdown allowance ÷ risk per trade) ÷ trades per day. It is how many sessions a book lasts if every trade loses at the stated size.
Why is that not the simulator's answer?
Because real sequences mix wins and losses. The widget counts those sequences. The table does not replace that count with the ceiling.
Does this say I will last N days?
No. The ceiling is an identity under an all-loss assumption. The widget reports a share of simulated paths. Neither is a calendar promise.

Run it against your own numbers

The same engine, unlimited runs, at the same free accuracy as this page's calculator — open the full personal rule editor to save a rule set, add a profit goal or daily loss stop, or import a trade history.

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Rules and outcomes vary by firm and by trader; nothing on this page is investment or trading advice, and PropSurvival is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any prop trading firm. This calculator models a stated rule set — it does not predict market outcomes.