Challenge Case File
Elite Trader Funding · 1 Step Evaluation · 2026-08-06
Where you stand
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
01
Verdict
P(funded) is 63.9% — at or above your threshold of 20.0%.
Set the P(funded) you’d accept. The verdict is a comparison, not our opinion — move the line and it changes.
Reaching a funded pass takes 1.6 attempts on average, counting this account and any resets. Expected additional fees to a funded pass: $27 (0.6 resets at $47).
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
02
Killed by
Of the paths that did not reach the target, the largest share — >99% of 0.361 paths — ended by total drawdown.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
03
Failure decomposition
Deaths by cause, summing to 100%.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
04
The sweep study
P(funded) peaks at 99.6% (±0.1%) when risk per trade is 0.20% of balance.
| Risk | P(funded) | SE | Daily DD | Total DD | Consistency | Timeout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10% | 92.8% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.2% |
| 0.20% | 99.6% | ±0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 0.30% | 96.8% | ±0.3% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.40% | 90.5% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.50% | 84.0% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.60% | 75.1% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.70% | 66.4% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 33.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.80% | 63.3% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 36.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 0.90% | 55.2% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 44.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.00% | 41.4% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 58.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.10% | 41.4% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 58.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.20% | 37.3% | ±0.9% | 0.0% | 62.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.30% | 26.7% | ±0.8% | 0.0% | 73.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.40% | 15.2% | ±0.7% | 0.0% | 84.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.50% | 10.3% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 89.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.60% | 10.5% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 89.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.70% | 10.5% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 89.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.80% | 10.4% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 89.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1.90% | 10.3% | ±0.6% | 0.0% | 89.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.00% | 9.5% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 90.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.10% | 8.5% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 91.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.20% | 7.1% | ±0.5% | 0.0% | 92.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.30% | 5.0% | ±0.4% | 0.0% | 95.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.40% | 3.0% | ±0.3% | 0.0% | 97.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2.50% | 1.9% | ±0.2% | 0.0% | 98.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
- total drawdown overtakes running out of days as the larger share of breaches somewhere between 0.10% and 0.20% risk per trade.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
Study
Firm Selection Study
Ranked by modeled first-year fee-ROI wherever this firm’s evaluation fee and retry price are both verified; the remaining firms rank by P(pass) alone.
| Firm | P(pass) | Attempts | Fee spend | Modeled ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City Traders Imperium | >99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| FTMO | >99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Instant Funding | >99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| The5ers | >99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Blueberry Funded | 99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Fintokei | 99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| FundingPips | 99.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| FTMO | 99.7% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Funded Trading Plus | 99.7% | 1.0 | — | — |
| FXIFY | 99.6% | 1.0 | — | — |
| OFP Funding | 99.3% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Goat Funded Trader | 98.9% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Lux Trading Firm | 98.8% | 1.0 | — | — |
| FundingPips | 97.7% | 1.0 | — | — |
| Funded Trading Plus | 96.6% | 1.0 | — | — |
| E8 Markets | 95.3% | 1.0 | — | — |
| SabioTrade | 92.8% | 1.1 | — | — |
| MyFundedFutures | 90.4% | 1.1 | — | — |
| Maven Trading | 90.0% | 1.1 | — | — |
| Alpha Futures | 86.9% | 1.2 | — | — |
| OneUp Trader | 84.4% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Aqua Futures | 84.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Blue Guardian Futures | 84.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Tradeify | 84.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Take Profit Trader | 81.9% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Topstep | 81.4% | 1.2 | — | — |
| The Trading Pit | 81.2% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Alpha Futures | 81.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Bulenox | 81.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| FundedNext Futures | 81.1% | 1.2 | — | — |
| Alpha Futures | 80.5% | 1.2 | — | — |
| FundedNext Futures | 78.4% | 1.3 | — | — |
| FundedNext Futures | 78.4% | 1.3 | — | — |
| FundedNext Futures | 78.3% | 1.3 | — | — |
| TradeDay | 76.9% | 1.3 | — | — |
| Apex Trader Funding | 76.5% | 1.3 | — | — |
| Phidias | 76.0% | 1.3 | — | — |
| Earn2Trade | 70.3% | 1.4 | — | — |
| Apex Trader Funding | 66.8% | 1.5 | — | — |
| Elite Trader Funding | 63.0% | 1.6 | — | — |
| Phidias | 61.1% | 1.6 | — | — |
| UProfit Trader | 50.1% | 2.0 | — | — |
| Leeloo Trading | 46.8% | 2.1 | — | — |
Section 7 compares resetting this account against continuing it at the same firm; this table compares switching to a different firm’s evaluation instead.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
05
Expected attempts
Reaching a funded pass takes 1.6 attempts on average, counting this account and any resets.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
06
Expected cost
Expected additional fees to a funded pass: $27 (0.6 resets at $47).
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
07
Reset vs continue
Expected fees to a funded pass: continuing $27 vs resetting $74 — continue is lower here.
Worked example — real engine output on the disclosed inputs below. Not a prediction for your account, and not an average across customers: change the inputs and every number below changes with them.
08
Provenance
Corpus 2026-07-30 · rule source: read from Elite Trader Funding · 1 Step Evaluation’s documentation · seed 1 · 5,000 paths · SE ±0.7%Challenge Case File · $99 · per year · issued 2026-08-06