Free 5,000-path pass probability against one firm's published rules
Numbers first: free 5,000-path Monte Carlo reports pass probability against one firm's published rules — trailing or static floor, daily loss, consistency. Answer first: the number is for your stats against that firm's actual mechanics, not a static-drawdown formula reused for every firm. No signup.
A free 5,000-path Monte Carlo against one firm's published rules reports pass probability for the trader's own stats — not a generic static-drawdown formula reused for every firm. This tool runs the firm's actual trailing or static floor, daily loss limit, and consistency rule, in the browser, with no signup. It does not rank firms. For the full free analysis (every firm in the corpus, CSV import, personal-rules mode) open /app?src=challenge-calc.
Your numbers next · Working backwards: free 5,000-path run against the firm's actual floor, daily loss, and consistency rule — before any evaluation fee
The widget below is that free path. For every firm in the corpus, CSV import, and personal-rules mode, open the full free analysis at /app?src=challenge-calc.
5,000-path simulation of the firm's own published rules — not a formula.
Most free prop-firm calculators assume a static drawdown floor because a fixed number is simpler to code than a floor that ratchets on every trade. This one runs the firm's actual trailing mechanic — seeded and reproducible — against the trading stats entered below: the same engine the full PropSurvival tool runs, not a simplified stand-in built for a landing page.
Working backwards: free 5,000-path · firm's published rules · no signup
Runs live in your browser on the stats you enter. Nothing you type is sent anywhere — see the privacy page for exactly what this site does and does not collect.
After this free result — one optional document at the published one-time price. Not a ladder on this page.
After this result → Situation Report · $29 · one-time · one month
The free analysis above stays free and complete. Pay only if you want the stamped Situation Report.
Keep going free — open the full tool →Why this number is different
Two prop-firm calculators can take identical inputs and disagree, and the reason is almost never the arithmetic — it is what each one assumes about the rule.
Most free calculators
Model a static drawdown floor because it is simpler to code — a line that cannot be hit by a retracement from an unrealized peak, even where the firm's own rule says it can.
This one
Runs the firm's actual trailing mechanic — intraday or end-of-day, ratcheted on the peak — because that is what the firm's published rule says happens to the floor.
The source
Every rule modeled here is read from the firm's own published documentation, with the field, the quote and the date it was checked — see the research & methodology page.
See the static-vs-trailing drawdown study for how large the gap between the two readings can get on identical trading statistics.
The cost of finding out the slow way
An evaluation attempt that ends on a rule nobody was watching still costs the same as one that ends on ordinary trading losses: the entry fee, a reset fee if the same rule is still unmeasured the second time, and the calendar weeks spent finding out which one it was. None of that is refunded by having traded well everywhere except the one rule that actually bound first.
The alternative to finding out live is running the same rule set against a trader's own numbers first, which is what the calculator above does, for free. It does not predict a specific outcome — it reports a probability, the rule most likely to bind first, and the modeled risk band the simulation found, the same three things the full analysis reports, computed the same way.
How it works
01
Pick a firm
Choose from the corpus in the calculator above — each firm's rules read from its own published documentation, dated per field.
02
Enter your stats
Account size, risk per trade, trades per day, win rate, and average win/loss — the same six inputs the full tool asks for.
03
Read the verdict
A pass probability, the rule that binds first, and the modeled risk band — the same 5,000-path engine as the full analysis, not a smaller preview of it.
04
Go deeper, still free
The full tool adds CSV import, every firm in the corpus, and a personal-rules mode for a trader defining their own limits instead of a firm's.
Frequently asked questions
Is this a prop firm challenge calculator?
Yes — this page is a free prop firm challenge calculator: pick one firm from the corpus, enter six trading stats, and a 5,000-path Monte Carlo reports pass probability against that firm's published rules — trailing or static floor, daily loss, and consistency — in the browser, with no signup. It does not rank firms or promise an outcome. For the same engine across every firm in the corpus, CSV import, and personal-rules mode, open /app?src=challenge-calc.
Is this a pass rate calculator?
Yes — pass probability is the number most people mean by "pass rate": the share of simulated paths, run at the trading stats entered above, that reach the firm's profit target without first breaching the drawdown floor, a daily loss limit, or a consistency rule. It is a probability for a stated trader profile, not a prediction of a specific outcome. For the full free analysis across the corpus open /app?src=challenge-calc.
How is this different from a generic prop firm calculator?
Most free tools use one formula for every firm — usually a static drawdown floor — because a single formula is cheaper to build than a rule engine. This calculator selects the firm's actual published rule set (trailing or static drawdown, daily loss limit, consistency rule, time window) and simulates 5,000 paths against it, so two firms with the same headline numbers can return different pass probabilities if their underlying mechanics differ.
Does this rank firms or tell me which one to choose?
No. PropSurvival publishes no pass rates, rankings or comparisons between named firms — the number this calculator returns is a property of the trader's own stats against one firm's rules, not a claim about that firm's business or a comparison with any other firm. Compare your own stats on the free tool above or at /app?src=challenge-calc.
Published payout terms beside this calculator
Pass probability above is modeled against a firm's published evaluation rules. Transcribed payout terms — profit split, first payout, cycle — live on their own money pages in the firm-rules library: every firm, every mechanic · FTMO Challenge (2-Step) payout · FTMO 1-Step payout · FundedNext Flex payout · The5ers payout · Apex payout. The same engine across the full corpus is at /app?src=challenge-calc.
Working backwards: free path before the floor ends the account · free 5,000-path against the firm's actual floor, daily loss, consistency rule, and published rules; full free analysis adds every firm + CSV. The free tool above covers one firm at a time — the full analysis adds every firm in the corpus, CSV import from a real trade history, and the personal-rules mode for a trader defining their own limits instead of a firm's. For a written record of the verdict — the exact inputs, the binding rule, and the modeled risk band, ready to reread before paying an evaluation fee a second time — see what the paid Case File adds.