{
  "name": "Prop firm evaluation pass rates: static vs trailing drawdown, 8 rule sets (2026-07)",
  "description": "Monte Carlo pass probabilities for one fixed trader profile simulated against 8 prop firm rule sets as verified 2026-07, plus a static-floor counterfactual per firm that swaps only the drawdown mechanism, and a risk-size scaling grid for 3 rule archetypes.",
  "url": "https://propsurvival.com/research-static-vs-trailing.html",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "citation": "PropSurvival (2026). Static vs trailing drawdown: the measured pass-rate gap across 8 prop firm rule sets. https://propsurvival.com/research-static-vs-trailing.html",
  "datePublished": "2026-07-11",
  "dateModified": "2026-07-12",
  "rulesVerified": "2026-07",
  "method": {
    "engine": "PropSurvival Quant Decision Engine v1.0 (runPropAtRisk), executed unmodified",
    "pathsPerCell": 20000,
    "prng": { "algorithm": "mulberry32", "seed": 12345 },
    "tradeCountDistribution": "poisson",
    "counterfactual": "identical rule object with ddMode set to static and freeze off; daily limit, consistency, targets and time windows unchanged",
    "twoStepComposition": "funded = P(phase 1) × P(phase 2); phase 2 simulated under its own target and window with the firm's drawdown rules"
  },
  "referenceProfile": {
    "winRatePct": 52,
    "avgWinR": 1.6,
    "avgLossR": 1.0,
    "tradesPerDay": 4,
    "riskPerTradePct": 1.0,
    "costPerTradeR": 0.05
  },
  "table1_drawdownIsolated": {
    "description": "Pass probability under the firm's actual rules vs a static-floor counterfactual. trailingCostPts = passActualPct − passStaticCFPct (negative means the trailing mechanism costs pass probability). reproduceUrl preloads the firm's rules in the free in-browser engine.",
    "unit": "percent",
    "rows": [
      { "firm": "FTMO", "program": "2-Step", "drawdownRule": "static 10%", "passActualPct": 90.5, "passStaticCFPct": 90.5, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "control — static is the real rule", "fundedProbPct": 84.3, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=ftmo2" },
      { "firm": "FTMO Swing", "program": "2-Step", "drawdownRule": "static 10%", "passActualPct": 90.5, "passStaticCFPct": 90.5, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "control — static is the real rule", "fundedProbPct": 84.3, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=ftmoswing" },
      { "firm": "FundedNext", "program": "Stellar 2-Step", "drawdownRule": "static 10%", "passActualPct": 91.4, "passStaticCFPct": 91.4, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "control — static is the real rule", "fundedProbPct": 84.6, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=fundednext" },
      { "firm": "Apex", "program": "Futures Eval", "drawdownRule": "trailing intraday 6% + freeze", "passActualPct": 75.4, "passStaticCFPct": 91.5, "trailingCostPts": -16.1, "note": "largest measured trailing cost", "fundedProbPct": 75.4, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=apex" },
      { "firm": "Topstep", "program": "Combine", "drawdownRule": "trailing EOD 4% + freeze", "passActualPct": 24.9, "passStaticCFPct": 24.9, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "daily 2% loss limit and 50% consistency bind before the trailing floor at this profile", "fundedProbPct": 24.9, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=topstep" },
      { "firm": "Funding Pips", "program": "2-Step", "drawdownRule": "static 10%", "passActualPct": 91.9, "passStaticCFPct": 91.9, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "control — static is the real rule", "fundedProbPct": 86.1, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=fundingpips" },
      { "firm": "The5ers", "program": "High Stakes", "drawdownRule": "static 10%", "passActualPct": 91.9, "passStaticCFPct": 91.9, "trailingCostPts": 0.0, "note": "control — static is the real rule", "fundedProbPct": 86.1, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=the5ers" },
      { "firm": "MyFundedFutures", "program": "Starter", "drawdownRule": "trailing EOD 4% + freeze", "passActualPct": 67.2, "passStaticCFPct": 81.3, "trailingCostPts": -14.1, "note": "EOD trailing cost", "fundedProbPct": 67.2, "reproduceUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/app.html?firm=myfundedfx" }
    ]
  },
  "table2_riskScaling": {
    "description": "Evaluation pass probability (percent) under actual firm rules as risk per trade scales; all other stats held at the reference profile.",
    "unit": "percent",
    "riskPerTradePct": [0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0],
    "rows": [
      { "archetype": "FTMO — static floor", "firmId": "ftmo2", "passPct": [99.7, 90.5, 76.6, 56.1] },
      { "archetype": "Topstep — EOD trailing + 2% daily", "firmId": "topstep", "passPct": [69.6, 24.9, 21.4, 6.0] },
      { "archetype": "Apex — intraday trailing", "firmId": "apex", "passPct": [95.4, 75.4, 59.6, 49.0] }
    ]
  },
  "disclaimer": "PropSurvival is independent analytical software and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any firm named. Pass probabilities are model outputs for the stated profile, not predictions or guarantees. Rules reflect the verification date above; firms change rules without notice — each firm's own documentation is the final authority."
}