{
  "name": "PropSurvival Survival Benchmarks",
  "version": "v1",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-02",
  "engine": {
    "file": "src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js",
    "sha": "4d53ab73e4539698db6cc2d6909e5d2df1d44436"
  },
  "seed": 20260902,
  "pathsPerCell": 5000,
  "horizonTrades": 200,
  "horizonMapping": {
    "tradesPerDay": 4,
    "days": 50,
    "note": "expectedTrades = tradesPerDay * days = 200. Per-day trade count is a live Poisson(tradesPerDay) draw inside the engine, so a single simulated path's realized trade count varies around this expectation."
  },
  "rules": {
    "personal": true,
    "hasTarget": false,
    "ddMode": "static",
    "totalDDPct": 10,
    "dailyCap": "none — engine dailyDD set to 100% of day-start equity, which given the 10% static total-drawdown floor can never bind before the total floor (see engine header note / methodologyNote)",
    "consistencyPct": 0,
    "targetPct": 0,
    "lossR": 1,
    "costR": 0.05
  },
  "balance": 100000,
  "grid": {
    "winRate": [
      35,
      40,
      45,
      50,
      55,
      60,
      65
    ],
    "payoffR": [
      1,
      1.5,
      2,
      3
    ],
    "riskPct": [
      0.25,
      0.5,
      1,
      2
    ]
  },
  "citation": {
    "text": "PropSurvival (2026). Survival Benchmarks v1: a synthetic win-rate x payoff x risk survival/ruin grid. CC BY 4.0. https://propsurvival.com/data/survival-benchmarks-v1.json",
    "bibtex": "@misc{propsurvival2026survivalbenchmarks, title={PropSurvival Survival Benchmarks v1}, author={PropSurvival}, year={2026}, note={Synthetic Monte-Carlo dataset, CC BY 4.0}, url={https://propsurvival.com/data/survival-benchmarks-v1.json}}"
  },
  "methodologyNote": "Each cell holds winRate, payoffR (mean win size in R; mean loss fixed at 1.0R) and riskPct (percent of current equity risked per simulated trade) fixed and runs 5000 independent seeded paths of a personal, firm-free rule set (10% static drawdown from the starting balance, no daily cap, no profit target) through PropSurvival's own Monte-Carlo engine (src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js), with a 0.05R trade cost and a Poisson(4) trades-per-day process over a 50-day horizon (expected 200 trades). Survival is the fraction of paths that reach day 50 without breaching the 10% drawdown floor; ruin is 1 minus survival. Every figure is read directly from the simulator's own output (passProb, se, terminal-equity percentiles) — no hand-typed statistics. The grid is entirely synthetic: no user account data of any kind was used to build it. Per-path maximum drawdown and longest losing streak are not collected by the simulator's current output shape and are omitted rather than approximated by a second tracker.",
  "notes": [
    "Per-cell seed = FNV-1a32(masterSeed + \"|\" + winRate + \"|\" + payoffR + \"|\" + riskPct); recorded per cell as `seed`.",
    "dailyFail is 0 for every cell by construction (see rules.dailyCap); proven, not assumed, in tests/survival-benchmarks.check.js.",
    "medianMaxDrawdownPct, p95MaxDrawdownPct, longestLossRunP95 are omitted — not exposed by the engine's current per-path output."
  ],
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      "payoffR": 1,
      "riskPct": 0.25,
      "expectancyR": -0.35,
      "survival": 0.017,
      "ruin": 0.983,
      "se": 0.001828,
      "medianEndMultiple": 0.898995,
      "p05EndMultiple": 0.897784,
      "p95EndMultiple": 0.899976,
      "seed": 1343230896
    },
    {
      "winRate": 35,
      "payoffR": 1,
      "riskPct": 0.5,
      "expectancyR": -0.35,
      "survival": 0.0004,
      "ruin": 0.9996,
      "se": 0.000283,
      "medianEndMultiple": 0.897727,
      "p05EndMultiple": 0.895374,
      "p95EndMultiple": 0.899627,
      "seed": 657891488
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    {
      "winRate": 35,
      "payoffR": 1,
      "riskPct": 1,
      "expectancyR": -0.35,
      "survival": 0,
      "ruin": 1,
      "se": 0,
      "medianEndMultiple": 0.895873,
      "p05EndMultiple": 0.890958,
      "p95EndMultiple": 0.899422,
      "seed": 476599110
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      "payoffR": 1,
      "riskPct": 2,
      "expectancyR": -0.35,
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      "ruin": 1,
      "se": 0,
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