{
  "name": "Target-to-drawdown ratio: how the evaluation difficulty knob changes pass probability",
  "description": "A seeded Monte Carlo study holding one trader profile and one risk-per-trade fixed while sweeping the profit-target to max-drawdown ratio on a synthetic evaluation archetype (static floor vs intraday trailing). The subject is the ratio as a difficulty knob, not any firm; every figure is model-derived and reproducible.",
  "url": "https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "citation": "PropSurvival. (2026). Target-to-drawdown ratio: how the evaluation difficulty knob changes pass probability [Dataset]. https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio",
  "datePublished": "2026-08-16",
  "dateModified": "2026-08-16",
  "_generated_by": "tools/build-target-to-drawdown-ratio.js",
  "_reproduce": "node tools/build-target-to-drawdown-ratio.js",
  "_subject_is_synthetic": true,
  "_package": "plan1278 / package 3219 (quant: math, invariants, proof)",
  "method": {
    "engine": "src/lib/state-conditional-mc.js simulateFromState — the same Monte Carlo kernel the PropSurvival app runs — driven through src/lib/case-file-sections.js safeRisk.",
    "subject": "A synthetic evaluation archetype. NOT any named firm. No pass rate here is a claim about a real firm’s business.",
    "isolation": "Risk-per-trade, trader profile, max drawdown (%), horizon, and daily-loss (disabled) are held constant. Only the profit target (%) moves; the x-axis is target/maxDD.",
    "prng": {
      "algorithm": "xoshiro128** (PSBoot rngFor)",
      "seedBase": 20260816,
      "seedFormula": "seedBase + levelIndex * 7919 (each target level independently seeded)"
    },
    "pathsPerLevel": 20000,
    "targetSweepPct": [
      3,
      3.6,
      4.5,
      6,
      7.5,
      8,
      9,
      10.5,
      12,
      15
    ],
    "ratios": [
      0.5,
      0.6,
      0.75,
      1,
      1.25,
      1.33,
      1.5,
      1.75,
      2,
      2.5
    ],
    "fixedRiskPct": 1,
    "fixedMaxDrawdownPct": 6,
    "tradeModel": "Each day: Poisson(mean 4) trades. Each trade wins with probability 0.5 for +1.2R or loses for −1R, minus 0.05R cost. Equity compounds; one R = the risk-per-trade percentage of current balance.",
    "evidenceClass": "Model-derived result with disclosed assumptions. Not an empirical fact about the real world.",
    "validation": {
      "directionalInvariants": 9,
      "reconciliationsExact": 36,
      "note": "The engine passes its directional invariants (tests/engine.invariants.test.js: a trailing floor is never easier than a static one, regimes differ by a measurable margin, results are seed-deterministic and bounded) and reconciles against hand-derived worked examples (tests/rules-reconciliation.test.js)."
    }
  },
  "referenceProfile": {
    "balance": 50000,
    "winRatePct": 50,
    "avgWinR": 1.2,
    "avgLossR": 1,
    "costR": 0.05,
    "tradesPerDay": 4,
    "expectancyRPerTrade": 0.05,
    "riskPerTradePct": 1
  },
  "archetype": {
    "maxDrawdownPct": 6,
    "dailyLossCap": null,
    "minTradingDays": 1,
    "maxTradingDays": 20,
    "targetSweepPct": [
      3,
      3.6,
      4.5,
      6,
      7.5,
      8,
      9,
      10.5,
      12,
      15
    ],
    "variants": {
      "trailing": "The drawdown floor trails the intraday high-water mark (it rises as the account rises, and never falls).",
      "static": "The drawdown floor is fixed at the starting balance for the whole evaluation."
    }
  },
  "results": {
    "trailing": {
      "ddMode": "trail_intraday",
      "fixedRiskPct": 1,
      "fixedMaxDrawdownPct": 6,
      "easiest": {
        "targetPct": 3,
        "ratio": 0.5,
        "passPct": 61.9,
        "sePct": 0.34,
        "timeoutPct": 0.3,
        "drawdownPct": 37.9,
        "dailyFailPct": 0,
        "totalFailPct": 37.9
      },
      "hardest": {
        "targetPct": 15,
        "ratio": 2.5,
        "passPct": 14.6,
        "sePct": 0.25,
        "timeoutPct": 6.3,
        "drawdownPct": 79.1,
        "dailyFailPct": 0,
        "totalFailPct": 79.1
      },
      "spanPoints": 47.3,
      "maxDrawdownShareCell": {
        "ratio": 2.5,
        "targetPct": 15,
        "drawdownPct": 79.1,
        "timeoutPct": 6.3
      },
      "curve": [
        {
          "targetPct": 3,
          "ratio": 0.5,
          "passPct": 61.9,
          "sePct": 0.34,
          "timeoutPct": 0.3,
          "drawdownPct": 37.9,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37.9
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 3.6,
          "ratio": 0.6,
          "passPct": 58.2,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 0.4,
          "drawdownPct": 41.5,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 41.5
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 4.5,
          "ratio": 0.75,
          "passPct": 52.3,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 0.6,
          "drawdownPct": 47.2,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 47.2
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 6,
          "ratio": 1,
          "passPct": 44.3,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 1,
          "drawdownPct": 54.6,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 54.6
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 7.5,
          "ratio": 1.25,
          "passPct": 37.6,
          "sePct": 0.34,
          "timeoutPct": 1.7,
          "drawdownPct": 60.8,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 60.8
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 8,
          "ratio": 1.33,
          "passPct": 34.2,
          "sePct": 0.34,
          "timeoutPct": 1.9,
          "drawdownPct": 63.9,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 63.9
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 9,
          "ratio": 1.5,
          "passPct": 31.2,
          "sePct": 0.33,
          "timeoutPct": 2.3,
          "drawdownPct": 66.4,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 66.4
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 10.5,
          "ratio": 1.75,
          "passPct": 26.1,
          "sePct": 0.31,
          "timeoutPct": 3.3,
          "drawdownPct": 70.6,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 70.6
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 12,
          "ratio": 2,
          "passPct": 20.9,
          "sePct": 0.29,
          "timeoutPct": 4.2,
          "drawdownPct": 74.9,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 74.9
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 15,
          "ratio": 2.5,
          "passPct": 14.6,
          "sePct": 0.25,
          "timeoutPct": 6.3,
          "drawdownPct": 79.1,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 79.1
        }
      ]
    },
    "static": {
      "ddMode": "static",
      "fixedRiskPct": 1,
      "fixedMaxDrawdownPct": 6,
      "easiest": {
        "targetPct": 3,
        "ratio": 0.5,
        "passPct": 68.8,
        "sePct": 0.33,
        "timeoutPct": 2.1,
        "drawdownPct": 29.1,
        "dailyFailPct": 0,
        "totalFailPct": 29.1
      },
      "hardest": {
        "targetPct": 15,
        "ratio": 2.5,
        "passPct": 20,
        "sePct": 0.28,
        "timeoutPct": 42.4,
        "drawdownPct": 37.6,
        "dailyFailPct": 0,
        "totalFailPct": 37.6
      },
      "spanPoints": 48.8,
      "maxDrawdownShareCell": {
        "ratio": 2,
        "targetPct": 12,
        "drawdownPct": 37.8,
        "timeoutPct": 33.3
      },
      "curve": [
        {
          "targetPct": 3,
          "ratio": 0.5,
          "passPct": 68.8,
          "sePct": 0.33,
          "timeoutPct": 2.1,
          "drawdownPct": 29.1,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 29.1
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 3.6,
          "ratio": 0.6,
          "passPct": 66.1,
          "sePct": 0.33,
          "timeoutPct": 2.9,
          "drawdownPct": 30.9,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 30.9
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 4.5,
          "ratio": 0.75,
          "passPct": 61.5,
          "sePct": 0.34,
          "timeoutPct": 5.6,
          "drawdownPct": 33,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 33
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 6,
          "ratio": 1,
          "passPct": 54.8,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 10,
          "drawdownPct": 35.2,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 35.2
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 7.5,
          "ratio": 1.25,
          "passPct": 48.3,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 15.4,
          "drawdownPct": 36.3,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 36.3
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 8,
          "ratio": 1.33,
          "passPct": 44.4,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 18.1,
          "drawdownPct": 37.5,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37.5
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 9,
          "ratio": 1.5,
          "passPct": 41.4,
          "sePct": 0.35,
          "timeoutPct": 21.7,
          "drawdownPct": 37,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 10.5,
          "ratio": 1.75,
          "passPct": 35,
          "sePct": 0.34,
          "timeoutPct": 27.2,
          "drawdownPct": 37.7,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37.7
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 12,
          "ratio": 2,
          "passPct": 28.9,
          "sePct": 0.32,
          "timeoutPct": 33.3,
          "drawdownPct": 37.8,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37.8
        },
        {
          "targetPct": 15,
          "ratio": 2.5,
          "passPct": 20,
          "sePct": 0.28,
          "timeoutPct": 42.4,
          "drawdownPct": 37.6,
          "dailyFailPct": 0,
          "totalFailPct": 37.6
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "findings": {
    "trailingEasiestRatio": 0.5,
    "trailingEasiestTargetPct": 3,
    "trailingEasiestPassPct": 61.9,
    "trailingEasiestSePct": 0.34,
    "trailingHardestRatio": 2.5,
    "trailingHardestTargetPct": 15,
    "trailingHardestPassPct": 14.6,
    "trailingSpanPoints": 47.3,
    "commonDesignTargetPct": 8,
    "commonDesignRatio": 1.33,
    "trailingPassAtCommonDesignPct": 34.2,
    "staticPassAtCommonDesignPct": 44.4,
    "floorPenaltyAtCommonDesignPoints": 10.2,
    "inconvenient": {
      "easyHalfRatioStillFailsPct": 38.1,
      "easyHalfRatioDrawdownSharePct": 37.9,
      "easyHalfRatioTimeoutPct": 0.3,
      "noteEasy": "A target equal to half the max drawdown (ratio 0.5) is still not a free pass under a modest positive edge: the majority of remaining failures are drawdown breaches, not timeouts.",
      "ratioCostFrom1to2Points": 23.4,
      "noteRatioCost": "Doubling the target-to-drawdown ratio from 1.0 to 2.0 costs more pass-probability points than the static-vs-trailing floor gap at the common 8/6 design — the ratio knob is larger than the floor-mechanic label.",
      "trailingTimeoutNeverDominates": true,
      "timeoutNeverDominates": true,
      "staticTimeoutCrossover": {
        "ratio": 2.5,
        "targetPct": 15,
        "timeoutPct": 42.4,
        "drawdownPct": 37.6
      },
      "noteTimeout": "Under the trailing floor, drawdown-share beats timeout-share at every ratio in this sweep — the floor, not the clock, is the binding constraint, so \"more days\" would not rescue a high-ratio design the way a lower target would. The static floor differs: its drawdown-share stays roughly flat while timeout-share climbs with the target, and at the hardest ratio (2.5, target 15%) the clock overtakes the floor — timeout 42.4% vs drawdown 37.6%. The full static curve is published so the crossover stays visible."
    }
  },
  "comparison": {
    "trailingEasiestPassPct": 61.9,
    "staticEasiestPassPct": 68.8,
    "trailingHardestPassPct": 14.6,
    "staticHardestPassPct": 20,
    "trailingSpanPoints": 47.3,
    "staticSpanPoints": 48.8,
    "floorPenaltyAtCommonDesignPoints": 10.2,
    "ratioCostFrom1to2TrailingPoints": 23.4
  },
  "datasetSchema": {
    "@context": "https://schema.org",
    "@type": "Dataset",
    "name": "Target-to-drawdown ratio: evaluation difficulty knob (synthetic archetype, 2026-08)",
    "description": "Seeded Monte Carlo pass-probability curves for a synthetic evaluation archetype as profit-target ÷ max-drawdown varies, under fixed trader profile and fixed risk-per-trade. Static floor and intraday trailing variants. Contains no pass rates for any named firm.",
    "url": "https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio",
    "creator": {
      "@type": "Organization",
      "name": "PropSurvival",
      "url": "https://propsurvival.com/"
    },
    "publisher": {
      "@type": "Organization",
      "name": "PropSurvival",
      "url": "https://propsurvival.com/"
    },
    "datePublished": "2026-08-16",
    "dateModified": "2026-08-16",
    "temporalCoverage": "2026-08",
    "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
    "isAccessibleForFree": true,
    "variableMeasured": [
      "profit target as percent of balance",
      "max drawdown as percent of balance",
      "target-to-drawdown ratio",
      "model pass probability (seeded Monte Carlo)",
      "timeout share of paths",
      "drawdown-breach share of paths",
      "drawdown floor mechanic (static vs intraday trailing)"
    ],
    "distribution": {
      "@type": "DataDownload",
      "encodingFormat": "application/json",
      "contentUrl": "https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio-data.json"
    },
    "citation": "https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio#cite"
  },
  "citationBlocks": {
    "plain": "PropSurvival. (2026). Target-to-drawdown ratio: how the evaluation difficulty knob changes pass probability [Dataset]. https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio",
    "bibtex": "@misc{propsurvival2026tdr,\n  author       = {PropSurvival},\n  title        = {Target-to-drawdown ratio: how the evaluation difficulty knob changes pass probability},\n  year         = {2026},\n  howpublished = {\\url{https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio}},\n  note         = {Seeded Monte Carlo on a synthetic evaluation archetype; CC BY 4.0 dataset at /articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio-data.json}\n}",
    "inProse": "PropSurvival (2026), target-to-drawdown ratio study (seeded Monte Carlo; synthetic archetype) — https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio",
    "shortWithHeadline": "PropSurvival target-to-drawdown study: trailing pass 61.9% at ratio 0.5 → 14.6% at ratio 2.5 (fixed 1% risk, modest edge; synthetic archetype) — https://propsurvival.com/articles/target-to-drawdown-ratio"
  },
  "axisTicks": {
    "ratio": [
      0.5,
      1,
      1.5,
      2,
      2.5
    ],
    "passPct": [
      0,
      10,
      20,
      30,
      40,
      50,
      60,
      70
    ],
    "failSharePct": [
      0,
      20,
      40,
      60,
      80,
      100
    ]
  },
  "display": {
    "balance": "50,000",
    "avgWinR": "1.2",
    "avgLossR": "1.0",
    "costR": "0.05",
    "riskPct": "1.0",
    "maxDrawdownPct": "6",
    "pathsPerLevel": "20,000",
    "seedBase": "20260816",
    "trailingEasiestPassPct": "61.9",
    "trailingHardestPassPct": "14.6",
    "trailingSpanPoints": "47.3",
    "commonDesignRatio": "1.33",
    "trailingPassAtCommonDesignPct": "34.2",
    "floorPenaltyAtCommonDesignPoints": "10.2",
    "easyStillFailsPct": "38.1",
    "ratioCost1to2": "23.4"
  },
  "disclaimer": "Model-derived and illustrative. The archetype is synthetic and does not represent any specific proprietary-trading firm. A real evaluation may add rules (a daily loss limit, a consistency rule, higher minimum trading days) that only tighten these results. Your own edge, cost, risk-per-trade and trade frequency change every number; this study shows the SHAPE of the target-to-drawdown relationship, not a design to copy."
}